Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban voted on Sunday morning at a school in a Budapest suburb and told reporters on the way out he was expecting a "great victory"

Budapest (AFP) - Nationalist Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban faced a tough challenge with a united opposition in an unpredictable general election on Sunday, after a campaign dominated by Russia’s invasion of neighbouring Ukraine.

The six main opposition parties are for the first time fielding a joint list, determined to roll back the “illiberal” revolution Orban’s Fidesz party has pursued during 12 consecutive years in office.

That has involved repeated confrontations with EU institutions, including over the neutering of the press and judiciary, and measures targeting the LGBT community.

By early afternoon turnout stood at 40 percent, down slightly from the record participation seen at the last national elections in 2018.

- ‘Anything can happen’ -

Orban himself voted Sunday morning at a school in a leafy Budapest suburb and told reporters he was expecting a “great victory”.

By early afternoon turnout stood at 40 percent, down slightly from the record participation seen at the last Hungarian national elections in 2018

Challenger Peter Marki-Zay, head of the main opposition alliance, cast his ballot accompanied by his wife and seven children after attending mass in the city of Hodmezovasarhely, where he inflicted a shock defeat on Fidesz’s candidate to become mayor in 2018.

He said the opposition had to battle “unfair and impossible circumstances”.

With the opposition all but absent from state media, he said: “Regardless of the result, this election is not free”.

Orban dismissed such complaints and insisted the vote was “fair”.

More than 200 international observers are monitoring the election for the first time, along with thousands of domestic volunteers from both camps.

Budapest resident Agnes Kunyik, 56, told AFP she backed the opposition. “We want to remain in Europe, we want a democratic rational state.

“They have ruined our country, destroyed it,” she said of Fidesz, becoming visibly emotional.

However, while the capital is fertile territory for the opposition, the election will be decided in around 30 less-urban swing seats out of the 106 directly elected constituencies.

Marki-Zay has been criss-crossing these areas to reach voters directly and try to break through government “propaganda”.

By contrast, Orban has been “hidden”, with no open events apart from a final rally on Friday, said Andras Pulai of the opposition-leaning Publicus polling institute.

Instead, Orban preferred “closed events where he talked to his most loyal supporters”, said Pulai.

Retired engineer Lajos Rebay, 78, said he was voting for Fidesz because “lots of positive things have happened in the last 12 years, an exceptional number,” adding: “We must continue.”

Publicus’ last pre-election poll, published Saturday, put Fidesz and the opposition neck-and-neck, while most other pollsters have Fidesz ahead.

Orban has struck a neutral and even at times anti-Ukrainian tone at home over the war

However, given the advantage Fidesz enjoys under the electoral system, “the opposition needs to have a three-to-four-point lead to win a majority” in the 199-seat chamber, Pulai pointed out.

He cautioned that the votes of Hungarians abroad constitute another unknown factor making the election “too close to call”.

“Anything can happen,” he said.

- ‘War changed everything’ -

As Orban told supporters on Friday, “the war (in Ukraine) changed everything” for the campaign.

In the wake of the Russian invasion, Orban went along with EU support for Kyiv despite his long-standing closeness to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

However, domestically Orban has struck a neutral and even at times anti-Ukrainian tone, refusing to let weapons for Ukraine cross Hungarian territory.

He has presented himself as the protector of peace and stability as opposed to a “warmongering” opposition he alleges would immediately boycott vital Russian energy imports – a charge Marki-Zay denies.

Marki-Zay has tried to frame the vote as “a clear choice: Putin or Europe?”

As well as electing MPs on Sunday, Hungarians are voting in a referendum posing four questions designed to elicit support for what Fidesz calls a “child protection” law banning the portrayal of LGBT people to under-18s.

Budapest resident Regina, 25 – who refused to give her surname – told AFP she had spoiled her ballot in the “twisted” referendum which she said had portrayed LGBT Hungarians as an “enemy”.

Government spokesman Zoltan Kovacs said a definitive picture of results will likely emerge between 11:00 pm and midnight.

Polls opened at 6:00 am local time (0400 GMT) and will close at 7:00 pm.